With the arrival of October, historically a positive month for the cryptocurrency market, investors are looking closely at the possibility of a new Bitcoin bullrun. The term ‘Uptober’ has become a mantra for optimists in the sector, especially in light of the latest developments that seem to point to a new bull run for the king of cryptocurrencies.
But what is really going on behind the scenes? Let’s see it together.
Let’s start with the macroeconomic factors. One of the main drivers for the next bullish cycle could be related to institutional developments. According to CleanSpark CEO Zach Bradford, Bitcoin could reach new highs in the next 18 months, with a potential peak near $200,000. Bradford points out that the US presidential election will play a crucial role: the important thing will not be the winner, but the reduction of post-election uncertainty, which has historically had a positive impact on markets.
Moreover, the Federal Reserve’s recent rate cut has already led to increased flows into Bitcoin spot ETFs. In particular, 27 September saw an inflow of over $400 million, a clear sign of renewed institutional interest. BlackRock, Fidelity and other large financial firms are betting big on ETFs, creating new opportunities for investors seeking exposure to Bitcoin with less risk than spot trading.
Meanwhile, however, Iran’s missile launch towards Israel represents an escalation that may fuel uncertainty and volatility, key elements influencing investors’ choices. This we have seen icon a price drop in just the last 48 hours as a ‘shock’ response, but cryptocurrencies, often considered a ‘safe haven’ in times of crisis, tend to see an increase in interest and value during these moments of geopolitical tension.
The US-Israel alliance and Russia’s support for Iran further complicate the situation, generating a clash of superpowers. The US, a supporter of Israel, could respond with economic sanctions that would have direct impacts on international trade and financial markets. At the same time, Russia, in strategic alliance with Iran, could see its economic ties with Tehran strengthened, leading to new dynamics that would affect global finance, including the crypto sector, which is increasingly being used to circumvent sanctions.
However, large institutional funds are not afraid of war and markets, the official filing of the Bitwise XRP ETF on the platform of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) came just yesterday, an important step towards the introduction of an XRP-based exchange-traded fund. The document reports that the registration was accepted on 2 October 2024, marking a further development in the expansion of crypto financial products in the United States.
